In Busan, cherry blossoms are blooming earlier with each passing year. Once a seasonal symbol that colored university campuses between March and April, they now bloom and fall as early as the beginning of March. The culprit behind this early time is global warming.

According to the weather IT company “WEATHERi” on March 20th, the cherry blossom blooming date in Busan is expected to fall on March 23rd this year. This date is five days earlier than the average blooming date (March 28th, based on 1991–2020), and two days earlier than last year.

While blooming dates vary year to year, the overall trend shows a trend of accelerating the timeline. An analysis of data from the Korea Meteorological Administration from 1973 to 2024 reveals a clear trend of earlier blooming in Busan. For example, in 1996, cherry blossoms were in bloom as late as April 7th, whereas they bloomed over two weeks earlier, on March 19th, 2023.

The primary cause is global warming. Rising average temperatures in March have led to earlier blooming. Last March, the average temperature in Busan was 9.6°C, an increase of 2.6°C from the 7.0°C average in March 1974. According to Ha Kyung-Ja (Prof. of Atmospheric Sciences, PNU), cherry blossoms are highly sensitive to spring temperatures. Blooming is triggered when the “accumulated temperature”—the total amount of high temperatures required for plant growth—reaches a specific threshold. Global warming, a culprit/the main cause of the rising average temperature, is accelerating the speed of reaching the threshold, prompting earlier blooming. Other environmental factors such as sunlight duration, the temperatures of the preceding winter, and precipitation levels also influence the timing of blooming.

There’s even a saying among students that “The cherry blossom symbolizes midterms,” as they find a sense of comfort in them during mid-term exams. However, experts warn that with continued temperature rises, it might no longer be able to see comforting sights in April. Shin Ji-Hoon (Assistant Prof. of Environmental Atmospheric Sciences, Pukyong National University) explained, “If the average temperature increases by another 0.2 to 0.3°C, cherry blossoms may completely fall before April.”

This change has sparked a sense of loss among students. A graduate of PNU said, “I used to find comfort in seeing cherry blossoms while preparing for midterms. It’d be sad if that were no longer possible. The climate crisis feels incredibly tangible now.” Kim Byung-Soo (Dept. of Russian Language and Literature, 20) added, “Every year, I used to ask myself, ‘Should I study or go see the cherry blossoms first?’ It’s nice to see them early. I feel bittersweet to learn that global warming is the underlying cause.”

Experts are concerned that the early flowering of the trees is a symptom of the severe warming trend in Busan’s March climate. As mentioned, the average March temperature in 2023 was 9.6°C, a 2.6°C increase compared to March 1974 with an average of 7°C. Prof. Ha emphasized, “The figure exceeds twice that of 1.1°C, which was the increase in global average temperature over the past 100 years. The figure of 2.6°C represents an enormous temperature change.”

Rising average temperatures in March can lead to various issues, including disruptions in early crop growth, increased risk of forest fires, and more frequent yellow dust occurrences. Prof. Ha explained that warmer spring temperatures accelerate “evapotranspiration,” a process in which moisture evaporates from soil and plant leaves. This leads to reduced soil moisture levels, which is critical for agriculture. A shortage of soil moisture can hinder the early growth stages of crops, posing a challenge to farming practices.

Reporter Oh Jeong-Rin

Translated by Seo Yoo-Jung